EU prepares restrictions on Ukrainian exports: Ukraine risks losing 3.5 billion euros

Ukraine may suffer serious financial losses due to future changes in trade conditions with the European Union. This concerns the termination of the “economic visa-free” regime, thanks to which Ukrainian products have been exported to EU countries without duties and quotas since 2022. According to estimates, the termination of these preferences may cost the Ukrainian budget 3.5 billion euros per year.

This was reported by Delo.ua with reference to the statement of the head of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax and customs policy Danylo Getmantsev, published in his Telegram channel. He drew attention to the fact that after June 5, 2025, the European Commission intends to change the format of duty-free trade, significantly limiting the access of Ukrainian agricultural products to the EU market.

Among the innovations is the transition from annual quotas to monthly restrictions on duty-free supplies. According to Getmantsev, this will mean more complicated contract planning: if earlier exporters focused on exhausting the quota during the year, now they will have to monitor the limits every month. The conditional “stop valve” can be activated at the beginning of each month, stopping deliveries even before the middle of the reporting period.

In addition, a significant reduction in the quotas themselves is expected. Corn exporters will suffer the most. In 2023, more than 14 million tons of this crop were delivered to Europe. However, the new quota may be reduced to 650 thousand tons, that is, effectively depriving Ukrainian farmers of the opportunity to sell corn in the EU without paying duties.

No less serious changes will affect other industries. The sugar quota will be reduced by more than half — to 40.7 thousand tons, although in 2023, exports of sweet products from Ukraine to the EU reached about 300 thousand tons. A similar situation may arise with the export of honey and poultry meat, which are also subject to restrictions.

Thus, the planned changes by the EU could have serious economic consequences for Ukrainian exports, in particular the agricultural sector, which has traditionally been the main source of foreign exchange earnings for the budget. The Ukrainian government will probably be forced to look for new sales markets or conduct difficult negotiations with Brussels to revise the terms.