Assessment of Russia's chances of expanding military operations from ISW

The Russian military command continues to use elite military units, in particular airborne troops, to defend vulnerable positions from the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Given the shortage of infantry in the Russian army, the likelihood of a successful resumption of "large-scale offensive operations" by Russian troops is almost non-existent.

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

It is noted that on August 27, geolocation data was published, which indicates that the Russian military command deployed units of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division in the area of Robotyno, probably from Kreminna, Luhansk region.

ISW has previously noted that elements of almost all Russian airborne troops are operating in areas where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations, and this lateral redeployment further indicates that Russian forces may be using elite units to reinforce critical sections of the front line.

ISW experts have previously pointed out that Russian forces have moved the 7th Guards Airborne Division from Kherson Oblast to support Russian defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and have moved other forces from Luhansk Oblast to protect against Ukrainian counteroffensives on the flanks of Bakhmut.

"The Russian military command has consistently used airborne troops for both offensive and defensive operations. However, they were exhausted due to the high operational tempo. The degradation of these forces is likely to weaken the Russian army's ability to conduct sophisticated defensive operations and will almost certainly undermine any intention of Russia to resume large-scale offensive operations that relied heavily on airborne troops, which are now lacking in Russia," analysts emphasize.

Earlier, UK intelligence reported that Russia could intensify its offensive in the Kupyansk-Lyman area in the next two months. The occupiers are trying to create a buffer zone around the Luhansk region.

Currently, the Russian army continues to try to advance in several directions - Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka. Heavy fighting is taking place.

Recently, it became known that Ukrainian troops can break through the Russian defense along part of the southern front line in Zaporizhzhia region and are expanding the wedge to the strategic city of Tokmak.

The information that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have reached the first line of defense of the engineering barriers was confirmed by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Army, General Mark Milley.

On August 28, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirms the liberation of Robotyne village. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to advance toward Novoprokopivka and Ocherevatne, despite strong enemy resistance.