NBU analyzes the impact of tariff wars, economic growth dynamics and main risks to employment in the context of war and global instability

In the context of escalating global trade disputes, Ukraine is forced to respond to challenges that affect both macroeconomic indicators and the situation on the domestic labor market. In its regular review, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) analyzes the impact of tariff wars, economic growth dynamics and main risks to employment in the context of war and global instability.

Despite the difficulties associated with the war and attacks on critical infrastructure, the Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate gradual growth. In 2024, real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9%, and this positive trend persisted at the beginning of 2025. The country's energy system withstood the heating season thanks to the synergy of the Armed Forces, energy companies and favorable weather. At the same time, damage to gas infrastructure facilities as a result of new Russian attacks created the need for partial gas imports to cover domestic needs.

As for tariff policy, the new US tariffs have not become critical for the Ukrainian economy, since the American market is not a leading destination for national exports. Moreover, Ukrainian goods are subject to lower tariffs compared to most other countries. Despite the risks associated with global trade conflicts, the impact on Ukraine, according to the NBU, will be limited and likely temporary. The decline in world oil prices due to the slowdown in the global economy may even give Ukraine certain advantages due to the cheaper imported energy carriers.

In the coming years, the NBU predicts stable economic growth at the level of 3–4% annually in the period 2025–2027. The main drivers of development are a favorable agricultural situation, a gradual reduction in the electricity deficit, as well as an active growth in the volume of defense orders. At the same time, international financial assistance will remain an important support for the Ukrainian economy. A record amount of external support is expected in 2025 - about 55 billion US dollars.

The labor market, despite martial law and numerous challenges, is beginning to show signs of recovery. Companies are increasingly actively opening new vacancies, although the acute shortage of personnel remains a serious problem. Due to competition for qualified workers, employers are forced to raise wages. According to the State Statistics Service, in 2024 real wages increased by more than 15%, and this trend continues this year.

Against the background of mobilization and migration processes, business is adapting, attracting new categories of workers - students, pensioners, people with disabilities and veterans. This partially compensates for the losses, but does not solve the problem comprehensively. In the post-war period, Ukraine will need to attract large-scale labor resources to rebuild the country. Among the priority tasks are the return of labor migrants, support for veterans in the transition to civilian life, as well as the development of a system of personnel retraining, in which both the state and business will play an important role.