The NBU predicts the stability of tariffs for gas, heating and hot water until 2025

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has released its inflation report for October 2024, which states that gas, heating and hot water tariffs will remain at their current level for the next year, i.e. until the end of 2025.

According to the regulator's forecasts, in conditions of economic and energy uncertainty, tariffs for energy resources and housing and communal services will probably not increase during this period. However, as indicated in the report, on the long-term horizon, we can expect a gradual increase in excise taxes and tariff adjustments in the utility sector.

According to NBU experts, the increase in energy tariffs is one of the potential risks for the inflation forecast. The difficult situation in Ukraine's energy sector may lead to the need for a gradual increase in the cost of gas, heating and hot water starting in 2026, when they will be adjusted to economically reasonable levels. This, in turn, may cause additional pressure on inflation and increase the need for subsidies for the population.

The regulator points out that while postponing tariff hikes helps curb inflation, it also worsens the financial condition of state-owned energy companies. Since their incomes do not correspond to the growing costs of purchasing energy resources, this creates additional risks for the stability of the energy market and the financial system of the country as a whole.

The NBU also notes that the dynamics of energy tariffs may depend on many factors, including fluctuations in international energy markets and internal economic challenges. In the case of a rapid increase in tariffs in the housing and communal sector, this will also cause an additional burden on consumers and public finances, in particular in the form of increased subsidy payments.

Thus, although there is currently no increase in tariffs for gas, heating and hot water, the situation in the energy sector of Ukraine remains unstable, which creates certain risks for the economic situation in the country in the medium and long term.