Ukraine is facing serious challenges in the area of migrant return, which could have a significant impact on the country's economy

Ukraine is facing serious challenges in the area of migrant return, which could have a significant impact on the country's economy. According to a study conducted by the Center for Economic Recovery and EasyBusiness, the non-return of Ukrainian refugees could result in a loss of up to $113 billion in GDP over 10 years (based on 2021 prices). In addition, it is expected that this will also lead to a shortfall of about $45 billion in tax revenues. This was reported by UNIAN.

The study showed that approximately 1.42 million Ukrainian migrants in European countries and 0.7 million in aggressor countries are in the labor force, a total of almost 2.1 million people. The majority of adult migrants are women aged 25-49, many of them have higher education and worked before the invasion.

Experts note that the return of these migrants is important for rapid and sustainable economic growth. In order to maintain a GDP growth rate of 7% per year until 2032, Ukraine will need to attract 3.1 to 4.5 million people to the labor force, even assuming that most migrants plan to return.

Over time, the desire of migrants to return decreases as they integrate in the recipient countries. Although 7-10% of forced migrants have already decided to stay abroad, most of them are still inclined to return. According to the study, between August 2022 and January 2023, approximately 17% of forced migrants found jobs or started taking vocational courses.

The analysis also shows that the largest share of forced migrants is ready to return after the end of the conflict. For them, security becomes a key issue. Nevertheless, those who have already returned to their home regions report difficult conditions in the places of return.

In addition, the study shows that employment opportunities are another important factor for Ukrainians to return. The availability of decent-paying jobs and higher living standards in Ukraine encourage the return of compatriots. However, over time, more and more able-bodied Ukrainians are finding work abroad, which does not contribute to their intentions to return, especially among highly skilled workers.

The issue of returning Ukrainian refugees is of great importance for the country's economy and is one of the key aspects of sustainable development. Effective state policy in this area can contribute to GDP growth and ensure sustainable economic progress in Ukraine.