Ukrainian business demonstrates optimistic forecasts against the backdrop of economic stabilization

In March 2025, the Business Activity Expectations Index (BACE) in Ukraine exceeded the neutral level for the first time in the last 11 months, reaching 51.8 points. This indicates a gradual improvement in sentiment among Ukrainian entrepreneurs, which puts a positive emphasis on the future economic situation. For comparison, in February this indicator was 46.9, and in March 2024 – 52.0, the press service of the National Bank of Ukraine reports.

The main factors contributing to positive changes were stable consumer demand, increased production, receipt of international financial assistance, as well as stabilization of energy supply. The seasonal factor also had a certain importance for improving the economic situation, although there were certain restraining factors, in particular, increased shelling of critically important facilities, high exchange rate and inflation expectations, as well as a shortage of qualified personnel.

Among the various sectors of the economy, trade enterprises assessed their activities most optimistically. They noted that sufficient supply of goods and stable domestic demand contributed to the positive results. The sectoral index for this industry in March increased to 54.0 compared to 49.2 in February 2025 and 55.1 in March 2024, which indicates the presence of stable demand in the domestic market.

Positive forecasts were also characteristic of industrial enterprises, which improved their assessments due to stable consumer demand and further expansion of production capacities. The index in this sector increased to 53.1 in March 2025 compared to 50.2 in February and 51.0 in March 2024. This indicates an improvement in the economic situation in the country's industrial sector.

The construction sector also showed a significant improvement in its expectations. Businesses in this sector improved their forecasts due to seasonal factors, in particular, favorable weather conditions for construction. The sector index increased to 52.9 in March 2025, compared to 44.7 in February of the same year, although it was slightly lower than the result in March 2024, when the index was 53.5.

The most restrained expectations were among businesses in the service sector. Entrepreneurs in this industry softened their forecasts, but still assess the economic prospects the worst among all sectors. This is due to the shortage of qualified personnel and the increase in production costs. The index for this sector in March 2025 was 48.8, which is a significant improvement compared to 42.2 in February 2025, but still lower than 50.6 in March 2024.

Thus, despite the presence of certain challenges for Ukrainian business, the overall assessment of the economic situation in the country is improving. Restraining factors remain, but overall positive dynamics are observed in many sectors of the economy, indicating a gradual recovery and stabilization of business activity.