Forecasts regarding the return of Ukrainian refugees: up to 3.3 million may remain abroad

As of January 2024, 52.5% of Ukrainians who were forced to leave the country due to the war expressed their intention to return. However, according to the Center for Economic Strategy, the actual number of people who may not return varies between 1.3 and 3.3 million. These figures reflect the difficult situation in which Ukrainians found themselves due to the long military conflict.

This information is contained in the Demographic Development Strategy of Ukraine until 2040, which was approved by the Cabinet of Ministers on September 30, 2024. It is important to note that the number of Ukrainians who remain abroad depends on the duration of the armed aggression, which emphasizes the uncertainty of the future for many families.

According to data as of the end of May 2024, the total number of Ukrainians living outside the country was about 5 million. The main reasons why people do not return include insecurity (47%), lack of jobs and livelihoods (31%), lack of access to basic services such as health and infrastructure (22%), and lack of quality education for children (15%).

Among the refugees, a significant share is children and teenagers, which causes anxiety about the future demographic composition of Ukraine. The failure of the younger generation to return can significantly worsen the already difficult demographic situation, creating additional problems for the country in the future.

Another factor that can influence the return of Ukrainians is the possibility of family reunification abroad. Women who have been able to find work and housing in other countries can encourage their husbands to move. An increase in the number of divorces, which is also predicted, may further reduce the chances of women returning to Ukraine.

In addition, the International Monetary Fund published a forecast according to which, if the war in Ukraine continues until the end of 2024, about 2 million Ukrainians who left for EU countries will not return home after the end of the conflict. As of October 22, 2023, the UN Refugee Agency recorded 6.2 million refugees from Ukraine, of which 5.8 million are in Europe.

Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research named after Ptuha, believes that Ukraine will be able to return no more than half of the refugees who left because of the war. This will inevitably lead to depopulation, labor shortages and a decrease in population density, especially in certain regions. If the 2.8 million women of working age who became refugees do not return, Ukraine's gross domestic product could lose 10% of its pre-war annual volume.