Energy risks for Europe: European Commission warns of possible long-term disruptions due to war in Iran

The European Union is preparing for potentially prolonged instability in energy markets amid the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. The European Commission has urged member state governments to prepare in advance for possible long-term disruptions in energy supplies.

The relevant recommendations were reported by Reuters, citing a statement by European Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen. According to him, the current conflict over Iran poses serious challenges to the stability of energy supplies in Europe.

One of the key problems remains the EU's significant dependence on imported fuel. Such a structure of energy consumption makes European countries vulnerable to external shocks, in particular to geopolitical conflicts in strategically important regions. The consequences are already tangible: since the start of the war between the US and Israel with Iran on February 28, gasoline prices in Europe have increased by more than 70%.

At the same time, direct supplies of crude oil and natural gas to the European Union have not yet suffered significant disruptions. Even despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Europe continues to receive the main volumes of these resources from suppliers outside the Middle East, which partially mitigates the negative effect of the conflict.

The situation with the supply of petroleum products, in particular diesel and aviation fuel, is of greatest concern in Brussels. According to analysts, jet fuel is currently the most vulnerable segment of the European energy market, which may create additional difficulties for the transport sector.

In a letter to EU energy ministers dated March 30, Dan Jorgensen outlined a number of recommendations for stabilizing the situation. In particular, he called for avoiding decisions that could restrict trade in petroleum products or negatively affect the work of European oil refineries.

Separately, the European Commissioner emphasized the need to optimize the operation of oil refining infrastructure. Member States are advised to postpone planned non-critical technical works in order to ensure maximum continuity of fuel production in the face of heightened risks.

The European Union is therefore already taking preventive measures to minimise the impact of geopolitical tensions. The further development of the situation on energy markets will largely depend on the duration of the conflict and the EU's ability to adapt to new challenges.