War in Iran could weigh on global economy, boost inflation, IMF says

The fallout from the Iran conflict could have a significant impact on the global economy. The International Monetary Fund estimates that a 10% increase in energy prices could push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1–0.2%.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said this in an interview with Bloomberg. She stressed that global GDP is currently growing by 3.3%, but any further increase in energy prices could complicate macroeconomic stability.

Georgieva urged governments and central banks to closely monitor oil price and exchange rate dynamics, while rebuilding fiscal reserves during periods of economic recovery. This, she believes, will help reduce risks to the economy in the event of new shocks in energy markets.

In addition, the IMF is already negotiating with a number of countries to provide assistance in the event of a balance of payments deficit due to global instability. This applies primarily to countries that are heavily dependent on energy imports and economies with high levels of public debt.

The Fund's management is particularly concerned about countries located at the ends of global supply chains. In particular, these are the Pacific islands, which are critically dependent on oil imports, as well as low-income countries, where any increase in energy prices can provoke socio-economic instability.

IMF experts emphasize that the consequences of the Iranian conflict are not limited to the regional economy of the Middle East. They can be felt on a global scale, affecting inflation, household spending and the stability of financial markets in different countries of the world.