The conflict around Iran will not lead to a fuel shortage in Ukraine, but prices are already rising - UPG's position

The escalation of the war in Iran will not cause a fuel shortage on the Ukrainian market. At the same time, the increase in purchase prices for petroleum products is already affecting the retail cost of gasoline and diesel at gas stations. This was stated by Dmytro Petrenko, Director of Development of the UPG Group of Companies.

According to him, the Ukrainian fuel sector demonstrated high resilience even during the full-scale Russian invasion, when logistics and supplies were subjected to unprecedented pressure. The accumulated experience allows companies to respond quickly to challenges and restructure supply chains. That is why, Petrenko emphasized, the market is ready for different scenarios.

In the structure of imports, UPG has diversified its sources of supply. The company receives diesel fuel from oil refineries in the United States, while gasoline is imported from Germany. This approach minimizes the risks associated with instability in certain regions of the world, in particular in the Middle East.

At the same time, the situation in the Persian Gulf region has a systemic impact on the global market. According to the company's estimates, this region provides about 30% of world oil production. Therefore, any disruptions — whether military actions or logistical restrictions — are inevitably reflected in international quotes. World markets traditionally react quickly to events in energy-important points of the planet.

An additional factor of turbulence is the possible restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which transports a significant part of the world's sea-based oil exports. Any complications in the movement of tankers in this narrow strategic corridor naturally increase price volatility.

According to Petrenko, the market is already recording an increase in purchase prices: oil and oil products quotations have increased, and spreads have also widened — the difference between the price of crude oil and the cost of finished refined products. This indicator reflects the marginality of refining and the balance of supply and demand on the global market.

The company emphasizes that it monitors the dynamics of world prices and developments around the conflict on a daily basis. Further decisions on purchases will be made taking into account these factors. Thus, although a resource shortage is not expected in Ukraine, the price situation will remain dependent on the geopolitical situation.