Business climate assessments in Ukraine have worsened: share of pessimistic forecasts is growing

Over the past year, the mood of Ukrainian entrepreneurs has become more restrained. The share of managers who positively assess the current state of affairs in their own business has decreased from 40% to 32%. On the other hand, the number of those who characterize the situation as negative has increased - from 14% to 23%. Another 45% of respondents define it as satisfactory.

Such data were published following the results of the new wave of the study "Business in Wartime", conducted by the European Business Association among member companies of the organization. The survey reflects the change in business expectations and assessments of the business environment against the background of ongoing military and economic challenges.

Negative dynamics are also observed in the forecasts for 2026. If last year 29% of managers expected a deterioration in the state of affairs, now this number is already 39%. At the same time, 41% of respondents do not predict significant changes in the development of their own business. The share of optimists has decreased significantly over the year - from 32% to 20%.

Among the key barriers to the activities of companies remain restrictions on the geography of work - this was stated by 58% of survey participants. In addition, 45% of enterprises are forced to suspend work during air raids, and 40% were forced to transfer part or all of their activities to an online format.

Entrepreneurs also named the factors that have the most negative impact on their work. The greatest threat to business is due to attacks on the Ukrainian energy system - this was noted by 82% of respondents. 78% of companies face a shortage of qualified personnel. Another 66% point to war and occupation of territories as a serious risk factor. The reduction in domestic demand worries 46% of businesses, and 40% note general economic instability.

Despite the difficult conditions, most companies remain financially stable. According to the survey, 67% of enterprises have reserves sufficient to operate for a year or more. Another 21% have a safety margin of about half a year, 10% - only a few months, and only 2% reported a complete lack of financial reserves.

At the same time, the volume of business losses due to the war continues to grow. As of the beginning of 2026, 19% of companies estimated their losses at up to 1 million US dollars. A quarter of respondents (25%) reported losses in the range of 1 to 10 million dollars, and 20% - more than 10 million dollars, which is higher than last year's figure (16%). At the same time, 11% of companies said that they had not suffered any losses, and about a quarter of those surveyed could not yet accurately estimate their scale.