NBU predicts return of refugees to Ukraine: first signs in 2027

The National Bank of Ukraine has published a forecast for migration flows of Ukrainians in the coming years. According to the regulator, the net return of refugees to the country will begin in 2027 and will amount to approximately 100 thousand people. This is stated in the NBU's quarterly inflation report for January 2026.

The report emphasizes that in 2026 Ukraine will continue to experience population outflow due to the worsening security situation. The net outflow of migrants this year is expected to be about 200 thousand people, which reflects the impact of current risks on demographic dynamics.

According to the National Bank's forecasts, the process of return of Ukrainians will intensify in 2028. It is expected that about 0.5 million people will return to the country then. Such an increase will be due, among other things, to the gradual reduction of security threats and the improvement of the economic situation in the country.

The regulator emphasizes that migration flows are closely related to the level of security and economic conditions. Reducing threats and stabilizing the economy will be key factors in creating conditions under which Ukrainians will feel confident and consider returning home.

The NBU also notes that the return of refugees will have a significant impact on the domestic labor market and social infrastructure. In particular, demand for housing, medical and educational services is expected to increase, which will require appropriate planning at the state level.

The regulator's analysts emphasize that the projected figures remain indicative and may change depending on the development of the security situation and the pace of economic recovery. At the same time, planning and preparation for the return of refugees will allow the government to respond more effectively to demographic changes in the coming years.