Iron ore exports from Ukraine decreased by 8% in 2025: supply structure and forecasts

Ukraine's mining industry showed a decrease in iron ore exports in 2025. The total volume of shipments abroad decreased by 8% compared to 2024 and amounted to 30.99 million tons. At the same time, the dynamics of supplies to individual countries was uneven: exports to China increased, while supplies to Slovakia and Poland significantly decreased.

According to GMK Center, China traditionally remains the largest consumer of Ukrainian iron ore raw materials. During 2025, 16.41 million tons of ore were exported in this direction, which is 8.7% more year-on-year.

In contrast, exports to the European Union countries decreased. In particular, Ukraine supplied 4.4 million tons of iron ore to Slovakia, which is 11.4% less than in 2024. An even more significant reduction was recorded in supplies to Poland - to 4.17 million tons, or 18.1% year-on-year.

In December 2025, exports of iron ore raw materials amounted to 2.22 million tons. This is 0.5% more than in November, but 35.6% less than in December 2024. 1.12 million tons of ore were sent to China in the last month of the year (–12.9% compared to the previous month and –45.4% year-on-year). Deliveries to Slovakia amounted to 318.94 thousand tons (–12.9% m/m; –38.4% y/y), and to Poland - 259.39 thousand tons, which is 51.4% more than in November, but 34.4% less than a year ago.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, exports of air defense systems decreased by 18.9% compared to the same period in 2024 and by 14.4% compared to the third quarter. The total volume of shipments for the quarter amounted to 6.85 million tons, which was the lowest quarterly figure in the last two years, GMK Center noted.

Revenue from iron ore exports in December amounted to $161.33 million, which is 4.6% less than in November and 40.9% below the level of December 2024. In 2025, export revenue decreased by 16.6% year-on-year to $2.34 billion. In the fourth quarter, the figure was $524.93 million (–16.4% y/y; –3.4% q/q).

GMK Center analysts predict that in 2026, iron ore exports from Ukraine will decrease by another 5% year-on-year, or by approximately 1.5 million tons, to 29 million tons. The forecast is based on market factors without taking into account military risks. The main reasons for the expected decline are the fall in iron ore prices in China, the deterioration of the competitive position of Ukrainian suppliers due to the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea, and significantly higher logistics costs. The losses may be partially offset by the increase in demand in the EU, associated with regulatory restrictions on steel imports.

GMK Center also recalls that in 2024, Ukraine significantly increased its iron ore exports - by 89.9% compared to 2023, to 33.699 million tons. The increase in shipments was made possible mainly due to the opening of the sea corridor from August 2023. At the same time, revenue from iron ore exports reached $2.8 billion, which exceeded the previous year's figure by 58.7%.

The main producers of iron ore raw materials in Ukraine remain the Ingulets Mining and Processing Plant, the Kryvyi Rih Iron and Steel Plant, the Poltava, Eristivsky, Northern, Central and Southern Mining and Processing Plants, as well as the enterprises ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Sukha Balka and Rudomine.