Global economy shows resilience: World Bank updates GDP growth forecasts

The global economy is showing more resilience than previously expected. The World Bank has updated its forecasts, reporting that global GDP growth in 2026 will improve slightly compared to the June 2025 forecast.

According to the Global Economic Prospects report, after growing by 2.7% in 2025, global output is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2026 and return to 2.7% in 2027. World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill notes that the economic system is becoming increasingly resilient to political uncertainty, but this positive dynamism cannot continue without risks to public finances.

The United States as a driver of global growth

The United States accounts for about two-thirds of the positive revision in the forecasts. US GDP is expected to grow by 2.2% in 2026, despite trade tensions and tariff restrictions. This will be supported by tax breaks that offset the negative impact of tariffs on consumption and investment. Stabilization of domestic policies after an import boom in early 2025 has helped the US maintain its role as a key driver of global growth.

Risks of inequality and stagnation

Despite the optimistic forecasts, the World Bank warns of excessive concentration of capital in developed countries. The current decade risks being the weakest in terms of growth since the 1960s, which is not enough to overcome extreme poverty. A quarter of developing countries now have lower per capita incomes than before the pandemic. Such inequality could lead to long-term stagnation and unemployment in the poorest regions, which remain cut off from the global economic recovery.

China and Eurozone Economic Slowdown

China’s economy is showing a gradual cooling, with growth slowing from 4.9% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026. Even fiscal stimulus and a shift in exports to markets outside the US will not be able to fully offset this slowdown. The eurozone is also expected to slow to 0.9% due to the changing trade relationship with the US, although defense spending could partially support regional growth.

Stagnation in Japan

Japan is showing stagnation at 0.8%, driven by weak domestic demand after a surge in export activity. This factor, together with general global trends, is putting additional pressure on the Asian region.

The World Bank emphasizes that while general trends show some resilience, uneven resource distribution and regional slowdowns remain serious challenges for the global economy in 2026.