Gas prices in Europe rise to two-month high: what’s affecting the market

Natural gas prices in Europe have risen to their highest level in two months. According to Dutch hub TTF, on January 13, after the opening of trading on the ICE exchange, gas futures for February delivery reached 32.37 euros per MWh.

The rise in gas prices in Europe continues for the second day in a row. Compared to the previous day, the cost increased by 7%. The day before, prices increased by 6.6%, which in total for two days gave an increase of almost 14% - the fastest daily increase since June 2025.

ExPro analysts note that several factors led to the rise in gas prices. First, cold weather persists in most European countries, which stimulates increased gas consumption. This, in turn, increases withdrawals from underground storage. Currently, storage stocks are at 54%, which is 12 billion cubic meters less than last year, when the level was 66%.

Another factor has been the rapid increase in CO2 emissions prices, which reached 90 euros per MWh - the highest in two and a half years. The high cost of emissions may stimulate a switch from coal to gas in electricity generation, further increasing demand for natural gas.

The market is also affected by disruptions in the operation of French nuclear power plants, which increase the need for gas for electricity generation. In addition, geopolitical tensions, in particular protests in Iran, potentially affect the global market, although gas exports from Iran are currently limited to supplies to Iraq and Turkey.

At the same time, the impact of rising prices in Europe on the Ukrainian market is still limited. According to ExPro, low trading activity and weak demand in the domestic market are holding back prices. As of January 12, natural gas in Ukraine cost UAH 23,200–23,450 per thousand cubic meters or EUR 36.4–36.8 per MWh, depending on the supplier.

Thus, the European gas market is showing a two-month high under the influence of climatic, economic and geopolitical factors, while the Ukrainian market remains stable despite global fluctuations.