NBU reports further slowdown in consumer inflation

The National Bank of Ukraine reported a further slowdown in consumer inflation in September 2025. In recent months, prices have been declining steadily and predictably, and the pace of this process turned out to be even faster than expected in the regulator's July Inflation Report.

As noted in the NBU commentary, the decrease in inflation was recorded in a wide range of goods and services. This indicator was most affected by a noticeable decrease in the price of vegetables and a weakening of price pressure in the fruit market, which partially offset the increase in prices of certain product categories.

At the same time, the National Bank emphasizes that fundamental price pressure in the economy remains significant. This is confirmed by the indicators of core inflation, adjusted for the seasonal factor, as well as the steady increase in the cost of services, which traditionally respond to inflation processes more slowly.

Actual data received in September showed that the inflation trajectory turned out to be lower than forecast. This result is explained primarily by the seasonal decrease in prices for vegetables and fruits, which turned out to be more significant than expected a few months ago.

At the same time, core inflation — an indicator that reflects stable price trends without taking into account seasonal factors — slowed down to approximately the level predicted by the forecast. This indicates the preservation of moderate but persistent inflationary pressure, which continues to affect the economy.

The National Bank concluded that although the current inflation dynamics are positive and indicate market stabilization, risks remain, in particular due to possible fluctuations in the energy and food markets. The regulator will continue to closely monitor the situation to ensure that inflation is further maintained within the forecast limits.